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  1. #1
    Registered User swoleyo's Avatar
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    Polls are mirroring 2016 within 3.5 percent - polls are wrong again

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/2020-...clear-politics


    Everything is in the topic. Polls are very close to 2016 which shows most polls have not changed polling methods at all.

    At best this means there just stupid
    At worst this means most pollsters are paid for shills

    Polls that showed Trump winning 2016 show Trump winning reelection
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  2. #2
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    well duh.. no chit.

    Everyone is just trying to fill the time until Trump gets re-elected. Loser libs here are trying their best to convince themselves and feel strong.
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  3. #3
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    They learned nothing in 2016, as evidenced by their continual reeeeeeeeeeeing ever since. They are adult sized babies, incapable of critical thinking and thus growth.
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  4. #4
    Registered User puzzycrookz's Avatar
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    How does a sample of a few hundred people polled reflect the voting decisions of millions?
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  5. #5
    Irrelevant John Promise's Avatar
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    Just lol at thinking the numbers aren't reversed with more people unwilling to state their support for Trump than ever before...
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  6. #6
    Registered User swoleyo's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by John Promise View Post
    Just lol at thinking the numbers aren't reversed with more people unwilling to state their support for Trump than ever before...
    The polls that show Trump winning take the shy voter into account. Its mentioned in the article.
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  7. #7
    Utah, get me two! Bodhy's Avatar
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    OP, I've smashed this "lying polls" argument repeatedly. The comparison between 2016 and 2020 is illicit.

    The polls in 2016 were actually fairly within the margin of error for the most part, so a Trump victory was not all that out of the bounds of predictability or probability. Then first facet of the fallacious nature of the lying polls argument is just a misunderstanding of probability.


    Many of Biden's numbers are above 50% which means there are far fewer undecided or third party voters in the electorate and there is little to no time for Trump to make up this ground.

    Hilary by comparison was all over the shop in 2016 and her polling was subject to severe fluctuation, then the email investigation opened at a critical juncture and that sank her enough to lose; don't forget she was also just as reviled if not more so than Trump.

    Joe's actually running better than any democrat in the last 25 years. And don't forget this election will also be the one which decides whether the incumbent and his retinue of co-felons face their deserved legal peril.


    This is why I keep saying there isn't actual tangible evidence behind all this "4 more years! MAGA 2020!" sloganeering; by any other actual metric I can see it suggests the opposite.
    Back off, Warchild.

    Seriously.
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  8. #8
    SillieBazzillie Alt #5 StoliFun's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by puzzycrookz View Post
    How does a sample of a few hundred people polled reflect the voting decisions of millions?
    I don't even know if you live in the US, but there are probably community colleges or whatever the non-US equivalent are available to you where you can take a course or two or more in basic statistics.


    Originally Posted by Bodhy View Post
    OP, I've smashed this "lying polls" argument repeatedly. The comparison between 2016 and 2020 is illicit.

    The polls in 2016 were actually fairly within the margin of error for the most part, so a Trump victory was not all that out of the bounds of predictability or probability. Then first facet of the fallacious nature of the lying polls argument is just a misunderstanding of probability.


    Many of Biden's numbers are above 50% which means there are far fewer undecided or third party voters in the electorate and there is little to no time for Trump to make up this ground.

    Hilary by comparison was all over the shop in 2016 and her polling was subject to severe fluctuation, then the email investigation opened at a critical juncture and that sank her enough to lose; don't forget she was also just as reviled if not more so than Trump.

    Joe's actually running better than any democrat in the last 25 years. And don't forget this election will also be the one which decides whether the incumbent and his retinue of co-felons face their deserved legal peril.


    This is why I keep saying there isn't actual tangible evidence behind all this "4 more years! MAGA 2020!" sloganeering; by any other actual metric I can see it suggests the opposite.
    This. The polls weren't wrong in 2016 - the election models were out of whack.
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  9. #9
    Registered User phaginator's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Bodhy View Post
    OP, I've smashed this "lying polls" argument repeatedly. The comparison between 2016 and 2020 is illicit.

    The polls in 2016 were actually fairly within the margin of error for the most part, so a Trump victory was not all that out of the bounds of predictability or probability. Then first facet of the fallacious nature of the lying polls argument is just a misunderstanding of probability.


    Many of Biden's numbers are above 50% which means there are far fewer undecided or third party voters in the electorate and there is little to no time for Trump to make up this ground.

    Hilary by comparison was all over the shop in 2016 and her polling was subject to severe fluctuation, then the email investigation opened at a critical juncture and that sank her enough to lose; don't forget she was also just as reviled if not more so than Trump.

    Joe's actually running better than any democrat in the last 25 years. And don't forget this election will also be the one which decides whether the incumbent and his retinue of co-felons face their deserved legal peril.


    This is why I keep saying there isn't actual tangible evidence behind all this "4 more years! MAGA 2020!" sloganeering; by any other actual metric I can see it suggests the opposite.
    Lol strong cope. "bu bu muh polls"

    You want to know the real polls? Use google search trends, most Trump vs Biden search terms are in favor of Trump (by a huge margin)

    Trump will have an easy win, quote me on it.
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  10. #10
    Objective Journalist PITA21's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Bodhy View Post
    OP, I've smashed this "lying polls" argument repeatedly. The comparison between 2016 and 2020 is illicit.

    The polls in 2016 were actually fairly within the margin of error for the most part, so a Trump victory was not all that out of the bounds of predictability or probability. Then first facet of the fallacious nature of the lying polls argument is just a misunderstanding of probability.


    Many of Biden's numbers are above 50% which means there are far fewer undecided or third party voters in the electorate and there is little to no time for Trump to make up this ground.

    Hilary by comparison was all over the shop in 2016 and her polling was subject to severe fluctuation, then the email investigation opened at a critical juncture and that sank her enough to lose; don't forget she was also just as reviled if not more so than Trump.

    Joe's actually running better than any democrat in the last 25 years. And don't forget this election will also be the one which decides whether the incumbent and his retinue of co-felons face their deserved legal peril.


    This is why I keep saying there isn't actual tangible evidence behind all this "4 more years! MAGA 2020!" sloganeering; by any other actual metric I can see it suggests the opposite.

    Some of this is not wrong. If trump wins you need to see

    1. Polls nationally tighten to within 3-4 points overall before nov 3rd

    2. There has to be a systemic polling error in favor of trump again by a couple points, in 2012 that error went in favor of Obama who beat the polls by a couple points

    3. If both of these happen again which is unlikely trump still has to win a rust belt state by seemingly razor margins. A tiny shift could still have Trump lose even if the results were the polls tightened to 2016 levels and the systemic error went in favor of trump

    4. If polls remain the same in averages, the polling error would be the greatest by far in anything we’ve seen in our lives and not even close

    As a disclaimer it’s definitely possible but given all the factors giving trump a 1/5 odds is fair, if trump wins Florida he’s damn good shot at Winning I’d say it jumps to 50%

    But there’s also a good shot trump takes Florida and losses a close electoral map
    Last edited by PITA21; 10-27-2020 at 03:29 AM.
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  11. #11
    Utah, get me two! Bodhy's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by phaginator View Post
    Lol strong cope. "bu bu muh polls"

    You want to know the real polls? Use google search trends, most Trump vs Biden search terms are in favor of Trump (by a huge margin)

    Trump will have an easy win, quote me on it.

    But by any metric worth its statistical salt the converse seems to be the case. Keep floating through the void in that Fox News conspiratorial bubble.
    Back off, Warchild.

    Seriously.
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  12. #12
    Objective Journalist PITA21's Avatar
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    If they’re juicing the polls you will see the national average tighten up leading up to the election, which bodes well for trumps chances. I do suspect the usual antics by democrats

    But you also have the X factor early voting and mail in ballots so you have to account for the lazy commies voting in droves and ballot harvesting in the inner city (Philly) (Miami) it’s a recipe for disaster in those states for trump

    We can’t just say trump has a great/easy chance to win when so much is riding on Florida, unfortunately. So for me it’s all eyes on Florida polling average. If Trump closes the gap In FL to <1 and PA <3 I’ll give him a higher chance to win on Election Day. Really though I think we need to see trump at <3 overall in PA to say he is trending to a 2016 repeat. With the amount of campaigning happening I can see it going that way but I’d have to see a dead heat in PA average to be confident he’d pull at least one rust belt state when accounting for harvesting/mail in and reports of a higher turnout.

    Like I said even if he closes the gap I want to see more cushion to account for mail in and increased turnout. He can lose PA by 30,000 votes just as easily as he won it by that in 2016
    Last edited by PITA21; 10-27-2020 at 03:45 AM.
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  13. #13
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    Originally Posted by Bodhy View Post
    But by any metric worth its statistical salt the converse seems to be the case. Keep floating through the void in that Fox News conspiratorial bubble.
    Sure buddy you keep soaking up information in your leftist echo chambers.

    I mean that worked out great in 2016 right?
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  14. #14
    Objective Journalist PITA21's Avatar
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    Bump
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  15. #15
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    Everybody knows that Trump won three rust belt states by a combined 77,000 votes. Zero percent chance he doesn't do it again. Trump has this one locked.
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    Trump will win
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    Originally Posted by PITA21 View Post
    Some of this is not wrong. If trump wins you need to see

    1. Polls nationally tighten to within 3-4 points overall before nov 3rd
    Correct. The "but muh polls were wrong" crowd is alluding to the fact that Hillary had a very large polling lead for most of the cycle. But the polls tightened dramatically in the last 10 days to where Trump's victory was within the MoE. We now see Biden with a large polling lead. If the polls tighten again the in next week, we may see the same late break for Trump in the results. If the polls stay where they are (~Biden +8), that's unlikely. We'll see. I'm not making predictions until Monday evening.

    Originally Posted by PITA21 View Post
    2. There has to be a systemic polling error in favor of trump again by a couple points, in 2012 that error went in favor of Obama who beat the polls by a couple points
    "Systematic polling error" in most cases is just last minute break to one candidate/party or the other. If Hillary was up by 3.5% in PA in the final polls with 5% undecided, and those 5% broke 4.5%-0.5% to Trump, which is akin to what actually happened, then polling could be right and still predict the wrong winner. In 2012, the undecided break was to Obama. In 2016, it was to Trump.

    Originally Posted by PITA21 View Post
    3. If both of these happen again which is unlikely trump still has to win a rust belt state by seemingly razor margins. A tiny shift could still have Trump lose even if the results were the polls tightened to 2016 levels and the systemic error went in favor of trump

    4. If polls remain the same in averages, the polling error would be the greatest by far in anything we’ve seen in our lives and not even close

    As a disclaimer it’s definitely possible but given all the factors giving trump a 1/5 odds is fair, if trump wins Florida he’s damn good shot at Winning I’d say it jumps to 50%

    But there’s also a good shot trump takes Florida and losses a close electoral map
    Under the assumption that Biden can hold all of the states that Hillary won (because if Biden ends up bleeding blue states like MN or NV, the election is long over in Trump's favor...), the following Trump states are currently looking at least competitive:

    TX, FL, PA, OH, GA, NC, MI, WI, AZ

    If Biden wins TX, the election is over and the GOP is in a world of trouble. That's not likely, though. Assuming Trump holds TX, then Biden needs to flip 37 EVs from the remaining states on the list, which would mean FL + any 1, PA+OH, or Any 3 except NC-WI-AZ. The winner of FL definitely has a clear advantage, but I pray to God, it doesn't come down to FL again. No one wants to relive that nightmare.
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    It's All About The U ToPHeR35's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jayarbie View Post

    If Biden wins TX, the election is over and the GOP is in a world of trouble. That's not likely, though. Assuming Trump holds TX, then Biden needs to flip 37 EVs from the remaining states on the list, which would mean FL + any 1, PA+OH, or Any 3 except NC-WI-AZ. The winner of FL definitely has a clear advantage, but I pray to God, it doesn't come down to FL again. No one wants to relive that nightmare.
    It will
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  20. #20
    Lettuce be reality Bluestar92's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by puzzycrookz View Post
    How does a sample of a few hundred people polled reflect the voting decisions of millions?
    Statistics. The problem is they gather statistics and apply the results to what they think the electorate will look like turnout wise. Registered republican, dem, independents, by race ect. The problem is they are way off in 2016 and now we have massive mail in voting and a pandemic to factor in so good luck. Pollsters will also adjust their numbers to stay in line with other polls because they’d rather be wrong with everyone else than be an outlier and be wrong.
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    Objective Journalist PITA21's Avatar
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    Like I said we will know Trumps chances on Nov 1st

    Florida just went in favor of Trump, if he keeps that trending upwards it's looking more and more like a 50/50 election
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    SillieBazzillie Alt #5 StoliFun's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by phaginator View Post
    Lol strong cope. "bu bu muh polls"

    You want to know the real polls? Use google search trends, most Trump vs Biden search terms are in favor of Trump (by a huge margin)

    Trump will have an easy win, quote me on it.
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    MISC GOP must admit that they are now the party of Hunter Biden's penis

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    Registered User ParsleyTea's Avatar
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    I hope after this latest polling disaster, hope most largely ignored polls in the future. Thought this a nice article on that:

    "Election night showed why Trump voters don’t trust the media: Goodwin"

    https://nypost.com/2020/11/04/electi...media-goodwin/

    excerpt:

    My favorite definition of a cynic: a premature realist.

    Today we are all cynics or damn well should be. Show me an American who trusts politicians, polls, news organizations and social media bigs who fancy themselves our new masters and I’ll show you a fool.

    Regarding the forecasts of how the election would go, Casey Stengel’s line about the hapless 1962 Mets fits the moment: “Can’t anybody here play this game?”

    As we stand on the smoking ruins of shattered predictions, the answer is no, a thousand times no. The usual suspects are bumblers — and that’s being kind because some are downright dishonest.

    A disputed presidential election that appears destined for the courts is the worst possible outcome for a nation already gagging on anger and polarization. Yet that’s where we are and while the campaigns position themselves for the final drama, it’s impossible to divorce the shocking results from the run-up to it.

    The wall-to-wall promises of a blue wave were delivered with all the certainty of prophecy. Joe Biden and Democrats would sweep the White House and all of congress from sea to shining sea. Even a large voter survey that Fox News did with the Associated Press suggested as much.

    Some 24 hours after the polls closed, President Trump still has a fighting chance to get 270 electoral votes, the GOP is holding on to a slim majority in the Senate and actually gained 5 House seats, narrowing the Dems majority to 12 seats.

    We all make mistakes, and most of us try to avoid them. The problem with the unholy news-polling-social media-industrial complex is that the mistakes are so numerous and predictable that they begin to feel intentional.

    Worse, all the mistakes run in one direction. What are the odds of that happening honestly?

    SEE ALSO

    They 'blue' it: Pollsters under fire after massive whiffs in key races
    The refusal of TV networks to promptly call states for Trump when he had big leads with nearly all the vote counted, as they did with Biden, is emerging as a point of grievance on the right. Were they afraid of sparking the violence promised if Trump won?

    The first clue that the election could not possibly turn out as promised was that all the players were of one mind. When they all take the same side of an argument, which is most of the time, the best bet is to run to the opposite side.

    Some samples: Last Sunday, Quinnipiac had Biden winning the general election by 11 points and CNBC predicted he would win by 10, as did NBC and the Wall Street Journal. The results, as of Wednesday evening, showed Biden ahead by two percentage points, 50-48.

    State polls were almost as bad. Emerson had Biden winning Florida by six points and the New York Times/Siena had him winning by three. The result: Trump won by 3.4 points.

    One sneaky suspicion is that biased news organizations, including the Times, use their polls to reinforce their agenda. The paper hates Trump and its polls generally undercount his support. Coincidence?

    Some on the right see crooked polls as a form of voter suppression. The claim is that making Trump look like a sure loser aimed to discourage supporters from voting.

    The usual response from pollsters is that “shy” Trump voters don’t engage with them or, if they do, don’t tell the truth because they are afraid of ostracism or violence. Thus, the pollsters blame Trump supporters for their own products being inaccurate.

    That’s been a constant feature of the Trump years. Everything is his fault, even the misconduct of his enemies, er, opponents.

    As usual, they have the blame game backwards. Trump voters, with good reason, didn’t trust elite corporations long before he ran in 2016. They were society’s forgotten people and didn’t see Wall Street or any other exclusive coastal institution caring about them.

    Only when they found their fighter in Trump was it obvious their mistrust was well placed. The Washington Post, CNN, the broadcast networks and others on the far left demonized the president for five years, falsely accused him of colluding with Russia and encouraged his impeachment.....
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    Originally Posted by swoleyo View Post
    https://www.dailywire.com/news/2020-...clear-politics


    Everything is in the topic. Polls are very close to 2016 which shows most polls have not changed polling methods at all.

    At best this means there just stupid
    At worst this means most pollsters are paid for shills

    Polls that showed Trump winning 2016 show Trump winning reelection
    The Conservative polls WERE BY FAR THE WORST. Trafalgar Group, Rasmussen, Insider Advantage, etc.

    They had Deep State Donald winning Bigly by YUGE Margins in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, etc.
    The mainstream polls had Biden winning, the Conservative Polls had Trump winning.
    Let's see who turns out to be correct on the main poll question.
    When a Feminist asks me what my view on Lesbian Relationships is,
    I always answer by saying "I usually view them in 4K Ultra High Definition".
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