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  1. #1
    Registered User swoleyo's Avatar
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    Buying real estate right now. Full potato or will the market not crash for awhile?

    See title. Thinking about buying another rental property. The market crashing wouldn't kill me but I'd obviously make more money on the rental income if I was able to buy it at a lower price. I've been reading for months now and it seems like nobody knows what's going on with this market.

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  2. #2
    Registered Republican Omnivium's Avatar
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    Most people all say the same thing: "don't time the market". Which is normally great advice. But seeing data like this makes it hard to believe that that is good advice right now

    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/d...-up-0-1-in-may



    I also noticed interest rates are falling. So at least you'd get a better interest rate than last year

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    Impossible to predict when the crash will happen, and I'm in the same boat.

    I'm currently completely liquid and also on the fence as to whether or not I should buy a new house (just sold mine).
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  4. #4
    He Whose Fingersare Messy ThaWhistle's Avatar
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    At this point, would only recommend buying things that are insanely well priced for the potential. Too much uncertainty about potential downturn or continued growth otherwise.
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    Registered User TheHulkster69's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ThaWhistle View Post
    At this point, would only recommend buying things that are insanely well priced for the potential. Too much uncertainty about potential downturn or continued growth otherwise.
    I personally am not a big fan of the real estate market but, as is, I mostly abide by the don't time the market philosophy myself. If you think it will produce you rental income or other, might as well buy now than wait and forego that income unless you are a timing expert.
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  6. #6
    Throwing life a 404 SaviorSelfJT's Avatar
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    For those who say not to buy a home right now and currently own a home,

    When are you going to sell it? If you think your home is too expensive to buy, then it's too expensive to not sell it.
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    Manlet with Credentials Jasonw1178's Avatar
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    Buying real estate to be rental property for investment is not a short term investment plan unless you are just buying it to flip it. When the market is high, you can ask more for rent. If the market drops, yeah you can buy for less, but then again rental values will be down as well, and less people to rent to. Then again, you could hold off, prices continue to rise.
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  8. #8
    Throwing life a 404 SaviorSelfJT's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jasonw1178 View Post
    Buying real estate to be rental property for investment is not a short term investment plan unless you are just buying it to flip it. When the market is high, you can ask more for rent. If the market drops, yeah you can buy for less, but then again rental values will be down as well, and less people to rent to. Then again, you could hold off, prices continue to rise.
    During the 08 09 crisis I think rent actually went up despite home values dropping. Because so many people foreclosed and had to rent, it drive up the demand for rentals. I can't be bothered to look up a source but a quick Google search should confirm
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  9. #9
    Registered User DrWilliam's Avatar
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    Real estate agent here, all I do is work with investors

    I wouldn't pay retail, but if you can find something that's a good deal for this market then I would buy.

    Personally I wouldn't buy in podunk towns but if you're buying in good areas with job/population growth you're going to do just fine. As long as it cash flows after taking into account PITI, repairs, capex and vacancy

    When you market does experience a correction, the high end homes will be the first to stagnate. Following that will be the low end ghetto neighborhoods because those people will get laid off / hit with economic woes first. Overall though, when less people are able to buy, those people still need to rent, so rents actually go up. You'll likely actually get more cash flow once a correction does finally hit because you'll be able to increase rents and your expenses will be the same.

    I'm still buying right now in Phoenix which was the #2 hottest market last year. But I do have access to good off market deals due to the nature of my job.
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  10. #10
    Registered User Anachron's Avatar
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    Most people who try to time the market lose in the long term. I mean don't gain as much.

    Since you said it would be a rental property, what's to lose? If you can set up positive cashflow, and lock in a 30 year mortgage to protect against interest rates going up, at the end of the day it doesn't matter how much the house is worth, because it'll keep making money every month.

    As it has been posted already, a housing crash potentially drives the rent prices up, so there's that too.
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  11. #11
    healthy eating disorder AgentSkyhawk's Avatar
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    OP you copping a duplex, or bigger units?
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  12. #12
    Registered User swoleyo's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by AgentSkyhawk View Post
    OP you copping a duplex, or bigger units?
    I try to aim for 4 unit's since that's the largest you can get before you need commercial loans. They are very sought after and I generally need to settle on 3 unit buildings. I wish I had the equity for buy a 9+ unit building. I've seen those make 70k a year.

    The problem with Chicago is all the buildings in the "good" areas won't return much of a profit because the price has been driven so high. North side is all 550k+ now and rental rates in most areas are around 1200/month.

    I'd have to buy in the more run down "ghetto" areas to get a good return and I'm afraid of these clowns not having jobs come the downturn.


    It's really hard to get any apartment complex here below market rates. They come under contract within 2/3 days. The market here is still ridiculously hot with limited supply.
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  13. #13
    Registered User DrWilliam's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by swoleyo View Post
    I try to aim for 4 unit's since that's the largest you can get before you need commercial loans. They are very sought after and I generally need to settle on 3 unit buildings. I wish I had the equity for buy a 9+ unit building. I've seen those make 70k a year.

    The problem with Chicago is all the buildings in the "good" areas won't return much of a profit because the price has been driven so high. North side is all 550k+ now and rental rates in most areas are around 1200/month.

    I'd have to buy in the more run down "ghetto" areas to get a good return and I'm afraid of these clowns not having jobs come the downturn.


    It's really hard to get any apartment complex here below market rates. They come under contract within 2/3 days. The market here is still ridiculously hot with limited supply.
    Get in with brokers and wholesalers to find off market properties
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    Originally Posted by adamsz View Post
    Impossible to predict when the crash will happen, and I'm in the same boat.

    I'm currently completely liquid and also on the fence as to whether or not I should buy a new house (just sold mine).
    According to some, if you do the math, in 2024 the interest on the national debt will be unserviceable and the whole thing blows up.
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  15. #15
    Haha yeah Lefticle's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by DrWilliam View Post
    Real estate agent here, all I do is work with investors

    I wouldn't pay retail, but if you can find something that's a good deal for this market then I would buy.

    Personally I wouldn't buy in podunk towns but if you're buying in good areas with job/population growth you're going to do just fine. As long as it cash flows after taking into account PITI, repairs, capex and vacancy

    When you market does experience a correction, the high end homes will be the first to stagnate. Following that will be the low end ghetto neighborhoods because those people will get laid off / hit with economic woes first. Overall though, when less people are able to buy, those people still need to rent, so rents actually go up. You'll likely actually get more cash flow once a correction does finally hit because you'll be able to increase rents and your expenses will be the same.

    I'm still buying right now in Phoenix which was the #2 hottest market last year. But I do have access to good off market deals due to the nature of my job.
    This is solid advice srs. I did almost exactly this.

    2 yrs ago, I bought a 3br 3 ba, 2900sqft ranch home in a Douglas County suburb (6th richest county in the US) off the marked from a friend's mom as he's a broker. One of the smaller houses in the neighborhood, which is awesome for value as well. It appraised for $10k over asking right off the bat. Now it's worth about $100k more than when I bought it. When it comes time to buy another, I'm going to rent this one out as an investment property while I buy another home with a 3% conventional primary residence loan. I also rent out my basement for $1350/month, which covers all but $300 of my mortgage lol. Been saving like mad so I can either buy another house, or just put all my cash in the stock market if it tanks.
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    Registered User DrWilliam's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Lefticle View Post
    This is solid advice srs. I did almost exactly this.

    2 yrs ago, I bought a 3br 3 ba, 2900sqft ranch home in a Douglas County suburb (6th richest county in the US) off the marked from a friend's mom as he's a broker. One of the smaller houses in the neighborhood, which is awesome for value as well. It appraised for $10k over asking right off the bat. Now it's worth about $100k more than when I bought it. When it comes time to buy another, I'm going to rent this one out as an investment property while I buy another home with a 3% conventional primary residence loan. I also rent out my basement for $1350/month, which covers all but $300 of my mortgage lol. Been saving like mad so I can either buy another house, or just put all my cash in the stock market if it tanks.
    Way to go! $100k in equity in two years, you can't ask for more than that.

    Real estate, if you do it smart, is the way to go IMO
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    Registered Spahgetti's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Lefticle View Post
    This is solid advice srs. I did almost exactly this.

    2 yrs ago, I bought a 3br 3 ba, 2900sqft ranch home in a Douglas County suburb (6th richest county in the US) off the marked from a friend's mom as he's a broker. One of the smaller houses in the neighborhood, which is awesome for value as well. It appraised for $10k over asking right off the bat. Now it's worth about $100k more than when I bought it. When it comes time to buy another, I'm going to rent this one out as an investment property while I buy another home with a 3% conventional primary residence loan. I also rent out my basement for $1350/month, which covers all but $300 of my mortgage lol. Been saving like mad so I can either buy another house, or just put all my cash in the stock market if it tanks.
    Love the basement tenant situation. I personally never want to rent any of my own personal home out again, but you really can't beat that.
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  18. #18
    I'm very snobbish. W1LLW's Avatar
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    Thoughts? Amass savings/liquid cash now to buy at the bottom in 12 to 18 months?


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    Originally Posted by W1LLW View Post
    Thoughts? Amass savings/liquid cash now to buy at the bottom in 12 to 18 months?

    They sure might be right, they could also be dead wrong. I'm no economist lol but even economists don't get it right. If you could, you'd be a trillionaire.

    If you believe in it hard enough, short the markets, you'll make a lot more in that case than real estate would get you (if you were, in fact right)
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    Originally Posted by 0p3rator View Post
    According to some, if you do the math, in 2024 the interest on the national debt will be unserviceable and the whole thing blows up.
    Yes and so called experts have been speculating about the next crash or depression since the great depression. Things may get bad but they will always bounce back.



    Originally Posted by Spahgetti View Post
    They sure might be right, they could also be dead wrong. I'm no economist lol but even economists don't get it right. If you could, you'd be a trillionaire.

    If you believe in it hard enough, short the markets, you'll make a lot more in that case than real estate would get you (if you were, in fact right)
    But the simple truth is they are wrong more then they are right. When the millionaires/billionaires or the people running multi billion dollar companies hit panic mode and start making changes to their normal operating procedures its time to be concerned.




    If economists and people that make all these predictions knew what was going on, they'd definitely be extremely wealthy. And most likely wouldn't be writing vlogs or news articles.
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    I'm very snobbish. W1LLW's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by guest89 View Post
    When the millionaires/billionaires or the people running multi billion dollar companies hit panic mode and start making changes to their normal operating procedures its time to be concerned.





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    Originally Posted by W1LLW View Post
    [center]
    I believe he means lifestyle and spending habits not laying off peasant workers
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    Registered User lordpatrick's Avatar
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    I definitely hope that the housing market goes down in like a year or two so I can buy something interesting.

    It's an asset that's appreciative over time as the population grows, so I'm not sure how much it will correct.
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    Originally Posted by DrWilliam View Post
    Way to go! $100k in equity in two years, you can't ask for more than that.

    Real estate, if you do it smart, is the way to go IMO
    Quoted for emphasis.
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    Originally Posted by Anachron View Post
    Quoted for emphasis.
    Just gotta look for deals

    Hoping to get one I just offered on this afternoon, literally listed at half of market value
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    even Mulvaney is predicting a recession. I'd wait for a recession. The hard part is know when it'll bottom out
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    its tough.. people have been talking about it for yearss. but its Impossible to predict when the crash will happen
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    Originally Posted by stifler86 View Post
    even Mulvaney is predicting a recession. I'd wait for a recession. The hard part is know when it'll bottom out
    Waiting for a recession is futile. You don't know when it will hit. There have been people waiting for it since 2012. Yeah, recession is coming, if you were "in" for a while you probably will simply not have as much profit-unlike someone sitting on cash with zero profit, or negative profit due to inflation eroding the value of their cash.
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    Some of your risk is dependent on the local market. 6 years ago, in my town, Amazon packed up and relocated their distribution center to a city 150 miles away. 1600 jobs lost overnight, the population of my county is 30,000. The real estate market crashed. Lots of bank foreclosures. If you bought a house 20 years ago, you were fortunate if you could sell it for what you paid for it. I started buying bank foreclosures. $6-$8 a square foot for a decent house with central heat/air in a decent neighborhood.

    This towns population has been diminishing since Amazon left, so there isn't a good market for long term rentals. So I furnish mine, put in all appliances and pay the utilities while renting them out by the week to traveling contractors (with a per diem) working at a refinery.
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    Originally Posted by paulinkansas View Post
    Some of your risk is dependent on the local market. 6 years ago, in my town, Amazon packed up and relocated their distribution center to a city 150 miles away. 1600 jobs lost overnight, the population of my county is 30,000. The real estate market crashed. Lots of bank foreclosures. If you bought a house 20 years ago, you were fortunate if you could sell it for what you paid for it. I started buying bank foreclosures. $6-$8 a square foot for a decent house with central heat/air in a decent neighborhood.

    This towns population has been diminishing since Amazon left, so there isn't a good market for long term rentals. So I furnish mine, put in all appliances and pay the utilities while renting them out by the week to traveling contractors (with a per diem) working at a refinery.
    Ive read your story many times here, youre a smart guy who capitalized on an opportunity born out of a chit situation. Thats good chit man
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